From Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight:
Frankly, I think it is quite arrogant to say that the man leading in the polls two months before Iowa has no chance, especially given that there is a long history in politics and other fields of experts being overconfident when they make predictions.
One reason that experts make overconfident predictions is because they often aren’t held accountable when they are wrong. So in an effort to raise the stakes, I asked on my Twitter feed whether there were any experts willing to gamble their jobs on their predictions and would promise to stop writing about politics if Mr. Cain in fact wins the nomination. There is absolutely no reward to taking this bet — however, if you believe that Mr. Cain’s chances are truly zero, there is also absolutely no risk.
I did get a couple of takers. Much to his credit, Dan Conley, a former speechwriter for Gov. Douglas Wilder, said he would “quit political opinion writing forever” if Mr. Cain is nominated. And Gary Connelly, who writes about politics for The Springfield Post-Gazette, said he would quit covering politics for The Gazette if Mr. Cain wins.
I hope it doesn’t come to that; we have enough unemployment in this country. But kudos to Mr. Conley and Mr. Connelly for venturing out on a limb. Anyone else out there willing to join them?
I'll put up a pizza, you betcha.